Mid-market resilience remains, but unease is growing

Mid-market business leaders around the world are less optimistic about the economic outlook over the next 12 months, with 71% expressing optimism (down two points from Q1 2025). At the same time, concerns about economic uncertainty have increased, rising six points to 61% and making it the most cited constraint to growth in Grant Thornton’s latest International Business Report (IBR). 

While the 90-day pause on most US tariffs has been extended to 8 July, and then to 1 August, the threat remains – adding to a sense of unease for the mid-market, with concerns over geopolitical disruption up six points to 53%, a new high. Business leader concerns about supply chains also reached a record high of 49% (up one point). Those concerned about a future shortage of orders also peaked at 50% (up three points). 

This rising sense of unease is impacting the mid-market’s international outlook, with the proportion of business leaders expecting to increase exports down three points to 50%. Those expecting an increase in revenues from non-domestic markets fell four points to 48%. However, the percentage of businesses planning to expand the number of countries they sell to remained unchanged at 48%, as did the share of businesses expecting to increase the number of employees focused on non-domestic markets, which held steady at 40%. 

Despite the rising international uncertainty, mid-market business leaders are not currently expecting it to impact their trading performance, with 66% expecting to increase revenue over the next 12 months (unchanged from Q1); 63% expect increased profitability and 54% expect to raise selling prices – both also unchanged. This highlights the ongoing resilience of the mid-market in the global economy. 

While optimism has fallen slightly, it is worth noting that the vast majority (71%) are still optimistic about the outlook over the next 12 months. But that outlook changes considerably depending on where you are in the world. There’s been a dramatic fall in optimism in the Asia Pacific region (down six points to 68%); but sentiment has improved in North America with optimism up two points to 81%. South America saw a three-point increase in optimism to 66%, while Africa saw a two-point drop to 69%. Europe remains stable with a modest one-point rise to 61%.  

Rise of the machines

Just as governments around the world are focused on re-engineering the global economy by striking new trade deals with the United States, or searching for new trading partners, business leaders continue to focus on re-engineering their own business by investing in technology. IT remains the top investment area for the mid-market, with 68% of business leaders planning to increase spending over the next 12 months. Within this, investment in AI remains the highest category at 67%, albeit down two points from the previous quarter. 

In contrast, investment in people dropped three points to 59% – the first time it has fallen in two years. Employment expectations also fell three points, with 53% of business leaders now expecting to increase headcount over the next 12 months. While previous quarters showed businesses investing equally in technology and people, the latest data suggests a shift in balance –indicating that increased investment in AI and digital infrastructure may now be happening at the expense of employment and workforce development. 

This trend is further highlighted in the latest IBR by a two-point rise in investment in research and development to 60% and a one- point rise in investment in plant and machinery to 52%; against a sharp four-point decline (to 51%) in investment in workspaces.  

Despite political pushback in some markets, investment in sustainability initiatives^* increased one point to 56%, a sign that, despite the rhetoric and recent regulatory shifts such as the EU’s Omnibus Package, businesses continue to prioritise sustainability as a strategic imperative.  

Peter Bodin, CEO of Grant Thornton International Ltd, commented: 

“Volatility. Uncertainty. Complexity. Ambiguity. While VUCA as a concept has been around for some time, business leaders are dealing with the reality of VUCA in today’s markets. Our latest IBR research shows that mid-market businesses are not standing still—they’re adapting with intent. Volatility in the geopolitical landscape is prompting governments and businesses alike to reassess the suitability and sustainability of trade relationships. As the global order is shaken by uncertainty, new trade agreements—and the regulations that come with them—are emerging at an accelerating pace." 

“In response, businesses are diversifying their supply chains and exploring alternative markets to reduce risk and build long-term resilience. Clients of our member firms are looking for our expertise to navigate new trade corridors, interpret evolving regulatory frameworks, and unlock opportunities in unfamiliar but promising markets." 

“We’re also seeing a shift in investment priorities driven by a shift in value creation. The digital agenda is evolving and AI remains a strategic priority. The businesses that succeed will be those that continue to embrace a more volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous world.” 

International Business Report Q2 2025

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* Grant Thornton’s next mid-market sustainability report is scheduled for release in September.