With a downward correction of 10 percentage points (pp), the national market closed the fourth quarter of 2025 with 64% optimism for the next 12 months – the lowest level since the second half of 2023, when it stood at 48%. This result marks a local break with regional and global sentiment: in South America, after beginning the year with an optimism level of 63%, it closed 5pp higher at 68%; globally, although the last quarter closed 2pp lower (74%), the mid-market remains more optimistic than in the first quarter (73%).
Economic optimism 2021 - 2025
Source: International Business Report (IBR).
The decline in optimism in Argentina coincides with a normalisation in the perception of constraints, but with decreases in revenue and margin growth expectations. This reflects caution in the national mid-market, marked by a "wait and see" stance amid pressured profitability and moderate expectations regarding external markets, in the context of international trade agreements such as the Mercosur–European Union agreement or the joint declaration on the framework for a reciprocal trade and investment agreement between Argentina and the United States[i].
Expectations for future business growth
The IBR shows declines in business growth indices for the next 12 months, both compared with third-quarter expectations and with those of the first quarter of 2025. These indices have a direct impact on optimism and contributed to the 13.51% drop.
Revenue, prices and profitability
For the coming year, half (50%) of business leaders expect an increase in revenue—the lowest figure since the first half of 2023 (49%). This is reinforced by a 13pp drop, to 42%, in those expecting to raise selling prices over the next 12 months.
In Q4 2025, the Argentine mid-market maintained its profitability expectations, with 38% of respondents anticipating higher profits—7pp lower year-on-year.
"The IBR shows us a national mid-market with moderate sales prospects and reduced pricing power, increasing pressure on profit margins," analyses Fernando Fucci, Managing Partner at Grant Thornton Argentina.
International markets
Regarding trade with foreign markets, 12% of mid-market leaders expect to increase the number of countries they sell to, and the same percentage anticipate an increase in revenue from foreign markets. Both indices are down 4pp compared to the third quarter of 2025 and are aligned with the outlook from the first quarter. As for non-domestic suppliers, only 9% expect an increase in the use of foreign suppliers and subcontractors (-4pp), indicating a strong preference for the local market to strengthen the supply chain.
Given these expectations, 8% of leaders expect to increase the proportion of employees focused on foreign markets—a 1pp drop from the previous quarter and equal to Q1 2024 levels.
“Regionally and globally we see the same trend: fewer expect increased participation in and from foreign markets,” explains Fucci. “However, the difference compared with Argentina is that on average half of mid-market companies expect increased revenue from non-domestic markets and to expand the number of countries they sell to.”
Future business investments
Investment priorities continue to centre on technology: 51% expect to increase spending—holding its position as the leading investment intention compared with the previous quarter, though 2pp lower year-on-year.
Investment in sustainable initiatives is on the agenda for 41% of local leaders (+9pp), despite regional and global expectations decreasing by 1pp and 4pp respectively. However, Argentina continues to lag behind the trend that views sustainability as a path to growth, with 64% of the regional mid-market and 56% of the global mid-market planning such investments.
Brand investment intentions rose 17pp compared with Q3, reaching 38%—a historic peak locally. “Faced with lower growth prospects, investment in brand plays a strategic role in gaining market share and boosting sales," highlights Matiana Behrends, Advisory Partner and leader of Human Capital Services at Grant Thornton Argentina.
Intentions to increase investment in research and development (R&D) remained at 32% compared to Q3, decreasing 12pp from the first quarter and aligning with expectations for Q4 2024.
In terms of investment in staff skills, the IBR shows a sharp quarterly drop to 32% (−13pp), although compared with Q1 there is a 1pp increase (31%). "In this area, Argentina is far below South America, – where 68% of leaders expect to increase investments in employee training – and the global average of 57%," notes Behrends.
She adds: “In the face of global uncertainty, most leaders invest in training their people to gain a competitive edge and build resilient, agile teams capable of adapting to change. In Argentina, however, the decline in investment is a short-term response to a challenging situation, but it jeopardises the medium and long-term future of organizations that will lack the necessary skills to meet the demands of the near future.”
Capital goods
Despite negative expectations for revenue and sales, 33% of leaders expect to invest in new facilities in the next 12 months – a 5pp increase (28%) compared to the previous quarter and 1pp higher than Q1 (31%). In South America and globally, quarterly and annual variations were similar, but the share considering such investment for 2026 stands at 63% and 54% respectively.
Expectations for increased investment in plant and machinery fell 2pp quarter-on-quarter to 30%, and 5pp compared to the first quarter – its lowest level since Q1 2024, when expectations stood at 29%.
Business constraints
Despite declines in business growth expectations, perceptions of business constraints decreased across all areas, influencing optimism and preventing deeper declines.
Costs
Following the trend in the region and the world, the percentage expecting higher shipping/delivery times and costs for goods during the next 12 months fell 3pp to 33%.
Energy costs are perceived as a key constraint by 28% of mid-market leaders (-18pp), reaching an all-time low. Compared with the region, Argentina sits 16 percentage points below the South American average (44%) and 22pp below the global average (52%).
“Argentina’s capacity to generate its own energy— from both fossil fuels and renewable sources— should shield the country from the high and volatile costs faced by those countries whose energy matrix depends on imports,” Fucci points out. “While this doesn’t completely not exempt us from the impact of international prices, it would allow us, as a country and as companies, to develop strategies to reduce generation costs and industrial self-generation.”
Environmental limitations and scarcity of natural resources follow similar trends. In Argentina, 13% see this as a constraint (-5pp), approaching the historical low of the fourth quarter of 2024 (12%). In South America, it concerns 34% of mid-market leaders (+2pp), and globally 43% (-6pp).
The percentage of companies that see the availability and rising cost of raw materials and other inputs for their production process as a constraint fell 7pp to 30%, nearing the annual low reached in Q2 (22%). Supply chain concerns also declined (−8pp), hitting a historic low (12%).
“It might be understood that the opening of imports is driving this expectation of cost reduction, but if we analyse this data along with the percentage that expects an increase in the use of local suppliers, it could be interpreted that the Argentine mid-market plans to opt in the next 12 months for a local value chain, which is emerging as more resilient and predictable than foreign ones,” Fucci reflects.
Demand
Locally, the IBR shows a 15pp decrease in the percentage that identifies a shortage of orders (24%) and a 20pp decrease in the percentage that expecting future order shortage (21%) as a key constraint. Regional and global figures also declined compared with Q3, but less sharply (6pp and 4pp; and 7pp and 5pp respectively|).
Market size was cited as a limitation by 24% of Argentine leaders (−1pp), 33% of South American leaders (−5pp), and 46% globally (−4pp).
Economic factors
After a year of increases, financing shortages was identified as a key constraint by 28%, a decrease of 14pp compared to the previous quarter and aligning with perceptions of the last quarter of 2024. This figure was accompanied by a 12-point drop in the percentage indicating economic uncertainty as a constraint (50%). The perception of geopolitical disruption also declined (-8pp), matching the historic low of 16% reached in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Regulation and red tape as constraints saw a sharp drop of 17 percentage points to 33%, sitting below the regional (50%) and global (49%) averages. Meanwhile, competition affects 30%, marking a slight decrease of 6 percentage points compared to the previous quarter.
Other limitations
Digital risk was cited as a limitation by 18% of respondents (−7pp), the lowest level on record. This finding is reinforced by the low percentage of leaders who plan to allocate their technology investment to cybersecurity tools (24%).
16% identify transport infrastructure as a limitation (-1pp). Regionally, 34% (+2pp) of South America’s mid‑market leaders identified it, and globally 44% (−4pp).
Finally, regarding human capital, 25% and 22% of leaders expressed the availability of skilled workers (-8pp) and labour costs (-3pp, all-time low) as a key constraint.
Salaries
Despite tighter profit margins, the Argentine mid‑market is optimistic about wage increases: 83% of respondents expect to raise their employees' salaries in the next 12 months (+1pp). However, only 11% anticipate an increase above inflation (+4pp).
Local strategies
Facing economic uncertainty, 34% of the mid-market is impacted in its decision-making by the inflation rate (-11pp), 25% by the currency exchange rates (-1pp), 20% by financial interest (+9pp), 17% by their own profit margin (+9pp) and 4% by the wage‑increase indices required by their industry (-7pp).
The corporate message conveyed to its collaborators and clients to keep them motivated and encouraged of the 37% is based on the collective value and the know-how of the teams (+11pp), while 29% focus on the company’s commercial success(-9pp), 18% communicate the financial stability of the firm in uncertain times (-4pp) and 16% on the experience and know-how of the leaders (+3pp).
In competitive markets, attracting and retaining talent is essential. To this end, 21% offer above-market salaries (+1pp), 22% offer employee benefits programmes (+10pp), 24% grant extended leave and additional time off (+6pp), 34% improve their health and mental wellness programmes (-5 pp), 26% offer performance‑based financial rewards (-15pp), and 57% offer training and professional development (-4pp).
--------------
i. U.S. Embassy in Argentina. (November, 2025). Joint statement on framework for a United States-Argentina agreement on reciprocal trade and investment. https://ar.usembassy.gov/